Dollar Fluctuations Deepen Sudan's Medicine Crisis and Expand Smuggling Market

Amsterdam: October 9, 2026 – Dabanga Radio. The fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate in Sudan is exacerbating the medicine crisis, given that both imported and locally manufactured medicines depend on production inputs linked to hard currency, which reflects on their prices and availability in the market. The exchange rate of the dollar against the Sudanese pound has seen a steady rise, reaching over 8,700 Sudanese pounds for sale, while the purchase price reached nearly 8,600 pounds, continuing the upward trend that began at the start of the week. Medicine prices have jumped in recent weeks by rates ranging from 60% to 65%, after previously recording increases between 30% and 45%. The most affected items are medicines for chronic and life-saving conditions, such as diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, rheumatoid arthritis, mental health disorders, and pediatric medications. A medical supply source, who requested anonymity, told Dabanga Radio that the rise in the dollar's price does not only affect medicines but raises the cost of various goods and services, including local products, due to the production sectors' reliance on inputs that are imported or priced in foreign currencies. The Dollar Presses on the Medicine Market The source explained that the pharmaceutical sector is directly affected by exchange rate fluctuations, noting that both imported and locally manufactured medicines rely on dollar-priced production inputs, which makes the cost of importing and manufacturing them tied to the movement of the dollar price. He noted that the failure of medicine prices to keep pace with the rise in the foreign currency price puts importing and distribution companies at risk of significant losses, limiting their ability to continue importing. He stated that some companies are forced, as a result of these losses, to reduce the volume of imports or stop them altogether, leading to medicine shortages in the markets and directly impacting patients and pharmacies. Medicine Shortages Open the Door to Smuggling The source warned that medicine shortages create a parallel market for smuggling, noting that smuggled medicines are not necessarily subject to the required oversight regarding quality, source, storage, and transport. He explained that medicine is a sensitive commodity and that some types require specific storage and transport conditions to maintain their efficacy. He gave the example of insulin, which requires refrigeration, warning that failure to adhere to the cold chain could lead to spoilage or reduced effectiveness. He added that the spread of smuggling also leads to the state losing part of its ability to control the types of medicines entering the country, their quantities, sources, and import priorities, and increases the risks of counterfeit or contaminated medicines reaching citizens. Financing via Debt Increases Losses for Pharmacies and Companies The source pointed out that pharmacies and intermediary companies rely in part on debt financing from importing and distribution companies, but the constant volatility in the currency price exposes these entities to heavy losses. He explained that a change in the exchange rate between the time the medicine is provided and the time of payment can lead to current and expected losses, which may push some companies and pharmacies to reduce sales operations or stop financing, which ultimately reflects on the availability of medicines. Subsidized Dollar or Liberalizing Medicine Prices? The source proposed the option of allocating dollars for medicine at a subsidized exchange rate, while providing sufficient and regular amounts of foreign currency, as one solution that could help stabilize medicine prices, ensure their availability, and curb the spread of smuggled and counterfeit medicine. However, he noted that implementing this option requires the state's capacity to provide large amounts of foreign currency on a regular basis. In contrast, he suggested liberalizing the medicine commodity and linking its prices to the dollar exchange rate, so that they rise with the increase in the currency price and fall with its decrease. He said this option could help companies continue to operate and avoid losses, thus ensuring a continuous market supply, but conversely, it could lead to a significant rise in medicine prices, making them inaccessible to broad segments of the population. Erosion of Capital and Supplier Exit The source warned that the continued rise in the exchange rate leads to the erosion of capital for those working in the medicine trade and may push some regular suppliers out of the market. He added that the widening gap between the demand for and supply of foreign currency could lead to the disappearance of some regular suppliers, opening the field even more for parallel trade and smuggling. The source believes that the medicine crisis in Sudan is not only related to rising prices but extends to the availability, quality, and safety of medicine distribution, emphasizing that stabilizing the medicine market requires addressing pricing, financing, and import mechanisms in parallel with addressing the exchange rate crisis. He warned that continued instability in the foreign currency market could lead to a worsening of medicine shortages and the expansion of the smuggling market, making it increasingly difficult for citizens to access essential medicines. Exchange Rate Fluctuations Threaten to Exacerbate Sudan's Medicine Crisis For his part, Amin Mekki of the National Medicines and Poisons Board warned of a worsening medicine crisis in Sudan due to the continuous rise in the dollar exchange rate and the difficulty of providing the necessary foreign currency for imports, noting that the continuation of these conditions threatens to increase medicine prices and reduce citizens' access to them. Mekki said that medicine prices are directly linked to the stability of the exchange rate, explaining that medicine is now treated like other commodities whose costs are affected by dollar movements, whether they are imported or manufactured locally using imported raw materials. The National Medicines and Poisons Board is Responsible for Pricing Mekki explained that the National Medicines and Poisons Board is the government agency responsible for setting medicine prices and compelling companies to follow the approved price list. He noted that pharmaceutical companies face significant difficulties in securing the dollars needed to import medicines, and the local pharmaceutical industry also relies on raw materials imported in foreign currency, making it in turn vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. According to Mekki, any increase in the dollar price is reflected in the cost of importing medicines and their production inputs, leading to higher prices and increasing the financial burdens on citizens. Dollar Auctions During the Transition Period Mekki reviewed the experience of the transitional government during the period from February to October 2021, explaining that authorities provided dollars to pharmaceutical companies through auctions, where each company submitted its invoices to determine its foreign currency needs for imports. He said the amounts provided for imported medicines reached about 400 million dollars during that period, according to his statement, which allowed companies to obtain the foreign currency necessary to meet import needs. Exchange Rate Disorder After the 2021 Coup and the War Mekki noted that the exchange rate lost its stability following the October 25, 2021 coup, before difficulties worsened with the outbreak of the war in Sudan, making the provision of the dollars needed to import medicines more complex. He added that continued exchange rate volatility is reflected in the prices of goods in general, including medicine, warning that failure to provide the foreign currency needed for imports could lead to a decline in medicine supplies or their unavailability to citizens. Warnings of a Widening Medicine Crisis Mekki warned that the continuation of the crisis without providing the necessary financing for medicine imports could lead to widespread health and humanitarian repercussions, given the market's reliance on direct imports or on imported raw materials for local manufacturing. He stressed the importance of providing the necessary funds for importing medicines, warning that the continued lack of foreign currency and rising prices could lead to an even more severe crisis for citizens, describing the potential consequences as potentially exceeding the severity of the current war's impact. Rising Medicine Prices in Sudan Increase Burdens on Citizens For his part, a source at one of the pharmaceutical sector institutions in Sudan told Dabanga Radio that prices for most medicines in Sudan have become almost liberalized, as companies adjust their prices frequently with every rise in the exchange rate, leading to an increase in the cost of essential medicines and treatments for citizens. The source explained that a very limited number of medicines enjoy medical privileges that allow them to be sold at relatively lower prices, while the citizen ultimately bears the burden of the continuous increases in medicine prices. He pointed out that health insurance coverage does not include all citizens, confirming that large numbers of them remain outside the insurance umbrella, which increases the difficulty of accessing treatment in light of the current economic crisis, despite not having precise statistics on the percentage of those uninsured.